Around this time last year the government outlined its ‘Action Plan for Jobs 2016-2020’. One of the stated aims was the creation of 50,000 new jobs in 2016. Latest figures show that, year on year, 57,500 more jobs were created between Sep 2015 and Sep 2016, with employment rising 2.9% over the period resulting in a total of 2,040,500 people now in work. Despite uncertainty in the aftermath of Brexit, 50,000 jobs for the calendar year of 2016 should be very achievable. It’s hard to argue that this hasn’t been a good year for the Irish economy. GDP growth is healthy, employment and wages are up and investment in services is beginning to recover.

Why should 2017 be any different? Well, there are many reasons to believe it will in fact be another good year for Ireland’s economy. Firstly, more people in employment and rising wages will mean more money in people’s pockets, which in turn will strengthen domestic demand. This spells jobs for the retail and services sectors as people loosen their purse strings, head out to a restaurant or pick up a new pair of sunglasses! (The sunglasses windfall doesn’t tend to peak in January, but wait for it!) The need for new housing stock, and the incentive to refurbish existing properties means that the construction sector will continue to add jobs in 2017, and furthermore, sectors which have seen a strong 2016 (IT, Finance, Legal and Compliance, Green Tourism) all show signs that 2017 will continue as before. Add to this the fact that banks are lending again, the reasonably good shape of our closest trading partners and the relative weakness of the Euro vis-a-vis the Dollar, and its continuing slide against Sterling after the initial shock of Brexit, and 2017 should be another good one. Indeed Brexit itself could be positive for Ireland. Next year may see jittery companies start to relocate jobs here as a result of uncertainty across the Irish Sea.

But hang on! Rising employment, cheap money and an excess demand for property – haven’t we seen this some place before!? Vigilance should be the buzz word for 2017, because it may not all be plain sailing. We must do everything we can to avoid repeating the mistakes of our past and ensure that our recovery has strong roots. Tackling rising accommodation costs, a public transport deficit and wasteful spending should be high on the agenda. Internationally we face some uncertainty. Donald Trump is something of an unknown quantity, Brexit’s finer details have yet to be revealed and elections across mainland Europe are tight affairs, which could yield disruptive results.

Let’s not be negative. For 2017, we predict further growth in employment, a drop in unemployment below 7% and a rise in wages in the order of 1.5-2%. We also predict the continuing return of the Irish emigrant next year. Inquiries about jobs in Ireland continue apace from people living abroad and there is now a concerted, albeit late, push from government and industry to encourage this return. Getting those people and skills back to Ireland will be highly beneficial for our economy and society.

Like any year, 2017 will have its challenges, but from the perspective of a successful 2016, things are continuing to look up.

Nollaig Shona agus Athbhliain Faoi Mhaise Daoibh Go Leir!

Cormac Spencer

01 8456312